Strategy and rules
Go for 1 or 2?
Break-even conversion math and score-state examples for after-touchdown decisions.
StrategyLet Them Score?
The narrow late-game window where conceding can make sense.
Rules & StrategyNFHS Retention Rule Explained
What the new keep-the-ball option changes late in games.
Game PreparationReading Defensive Tendencies
How to chart coverage patterns without overfitting one game.
Tools and data
How Playoff Simulation Works
A modeling explainer: turning a rating gap into a win probability, what 10,000 Monte Carlo runs actually buy you, and why brackets punish favorites. Worked on the real 2025 final, with a simulator you can run.
Read the explainer →Alabama Rankings
Statewide power ratings for every AHSAA varsity girls flag football team, with division filters, strength of schedule, and matchup probabilities.
View rankings →Alabama coverage
2026 Season2026 Alabama Flag Football Season Hub
Start here for what the statewide ratings show so far, how often they update, the early-season caveats, and links to the latest data stories.
Alabama data stories
Central’s 62-Game Streak, Measured
Twenty shutouts in the twenty-five streak games we hold, a median margin of 39, and not one of them inside nine points. Plus the 59-game in-state run that is still going.
Model NotesThe September 9 Model Snapshot
One archived snapshot read three ways: who rated highest, who had actually been tested, and where the model was most wrong. With a September 17 follow-up.
Original DataWhat a 2025 Flag Football Score Looked Like
Original full-season score distribution, shutout, margin, and lattice analysis.
Rules & StrategyNo More 7A: Alabama’s New Classification
How the 2026 alignment changes the flag football playoff map.
Behind the NumbersHow Our Alabama Rankings Work
Plain-English methodology for ratings, Elo, capped margins, and uncertainty.